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Blue Collar Dollar

By Paul Petillo, Managing Editor/BlueCollarDollar.com and Target2025.com

Perhaps one of the most troubling aspects of planning for retirement, even with a union pension, is the possibility that you will outlive the plan itself. But before I get to that, let’s discuss who we are.

I have found in my conversations with union members that this working group tends to break down into three basic groups.  The youngest among us tend to look at wages, excluding the immediate needs for health insurance coverage or pensions.  The next group, more middle-aged with families and dependents tend to find the benefits provided by health insurance along with wages a top priority.  And while the more senior members of any union will not exclude the pay they receive of the health care parts of their contracts, they look to the pension as the most important aspect of what their contracts offer.

A recent article in the Christian Science Monitor, perhaps intended to shock you into action and begin to up the ante on your retirement plan, suggested that the likelihood your children will live for a century. Personally, the thought of living that long frightens me just a little. While Trent Hamm offers in his guest post at CSMonitor that “sixty-five will be the new forty” or “few people want to retire at 65″, he seems to be missing the arc of the story.

We may live longer but will we want to contribute, no matter what career choice you make, for 60 plus years? And he is making some assumptions about the populace as a whole.  But these assumptions do not play well with union members.

Take that average 20-year-old. The assumption is that all of them will go to college – which less than half do – and those that do will land a job in their chosen field – also less than half do – and they can see the worth of paying for their future rather than paying for their college loans – far less than half do – and those that do invest, will net 8% – without participation in 1982 to 2000 run-up, these new investors will find the return not much better than flat – misses the reality of how most of our lives are lived.

And that leaves the underinvested, the undereducated and underemployed who will skew the investment and employment numbers by eating up more jobs per working adult and worse, by the time they are finished a 40 year working career, will not be able to work much longer – in part because of the physical demands of this lifestyle.

While the members of unions often fall into this category, particularly when it comes to working well into our eighties, the problem of how much our retirement can cost and will our pension be adequate enough in the form of compensation should be considered

While it is great fun to speculate that those born today will live a century, the truth is that arc does not account for forty years of dependency – 20 at the front and probably 20 at the back-end.

Then, just as Mr. Hamm is about to conclude, he suggest that $8 million is the new retirement target for 25 year olds beginning on their own story arc. To do this, of course with a steady 8% growth in the markets (which market he doesn’t say) and with a retirement target of 65 years old, this youthful investor would need to sock away about $2400 a month. The illustration was meant to show the reader that if they target 80 years old instead, they would only need to save $725.

Who at 25 knows what 65 will be like? So if you were to follow Mr. Hamm’s suggestion, invested only $725 buy found, as life often does, that 65 is a much more appealing end-of-the-line number, you will have missed the mark.

He does suggest that you do your retirement planning without Social Security in the calculation. This is probably prudent for someone who is 25. But how people use Social Security may change and efforts to increase the programs solvency are being discussed and even implemented.

So when it comes to Social Security, you need to consider a couple of newer sort of approaches current and soon-to-be retirees are employing. Those that have invested diligently will probably wait until the last possible moment to draw their benefits and those who didn’t invest well, will work longer and wait to draw the program’s benefits.

So what can union members do? How you approach your daily budgets, the quality of the loans you procure and the diligence of your investments and savings plans all play a significant role in how you retire, when you retire and whether or not you can. I have said it before and it bears repeating: Retirement is a whole life approach with numerous goals.  Relying solely on your pension is not the answer.  Neither is an over-reliance on Social Security.

What is needed is some sort of investment strategy outside of these benefits.  If your company offers a pension employees 401(k) plan, you should utilize it – even if there is no matching contribution.  Because of the tax-deferred nature of these plans and pre-tax deduction, the vast majority of us can contribute up to 5% of our income without changing our take-home pay.  This will significantly add to the amount of money the average 25 year old will have when they retire. For the middle-aged union member, it could offset a great many financial unknowns.

If you don’t have access to a 401(k) through your employer, open a Roth IRA and make every attempt to regularly contribute to it.  You may not outlive your pension but on the other hand, it may not be enough to keep you comfortable in your old age.  And if the pension runs into difficulties, this sort of prudent investment choice coupled with a balanced budget and low debt will make the effort much more enjoyable.

 

by Paul Petillo

It used to be that if you had a pension, as many union workers do, you were safe inside the wall of financial protection that a defined benefit plan offered.  You could, for the most part, ignore the world of investing, ignore the turmoil in the markets and be on your merry way without a care about your retirement future.  That promised pension would be there.

But somewhere along the line, things changed.  What was once seen as the economic equalizer for millions of union employees is now under pressure.  It should have come as no surprise that the same forces that drew investors to take riskier choices were many of the same investors in charge of your pensions.  So when the marketplace took a hit, so did your plan and with it, some of what you thought was so secure.

There are very pensions in the country that survived in tact.  There are numerous reasons why those few did but the one that stands out is luck.  These plans had the good fortune to be focused on the fiduciary responsibility but for the most part, it was simply being in the right place at the right time.

Because of the "right place", those pensions has more of chance of recovering your pre-2007 portfolio values than you might think.

The Center for Retirement Research at Boston University looked at investors who use 401(k) plans and wondered if the playing field was even for all investors.  (I mention 401(k) plans in part because many union employees have access to them and because pensions invest in similar ways.  The differences beyond that are distinct. Pensions are not portable, are not directed by you, and are built up over time based on years worked; 401(k) plans are portable, the investment decision is yours to make and the success of the plan depends on those decisions.

Pension administrators are faced with the same problems as individual investors.  The CCR looked at the ability of different age groups to recover from the downturn much the same way an actuary might look at your pension to determine tis overall health.  They describe the various groups in a recent report as Gen Xers (30-year-olds),  Late Boomers (40-years-old), and the Early Boomers (50-years-old).

The Early Boomer has been invested in their pension during the heyday of the stock market, or what is referred to in the report as the “run-up from 1982-2000″, and have benefited greatly because of it. In terms of real retirement, they are far better off because of those years than their younger cohorts may possibly ever be.

The report by Alicia H. Munnell and Jean-Pierre Aubrey understands that everyone suffered the financial consequences of the crisis. But the thinking that the younger investors would most likely be the beneficiaries of the time element and that middle aged investors would benefit from higher contributions may not be true. But pensions are different than 401(k) plans just as they are the same.

While in a 401(k), the authors of the report assumed that the younger investor would not have lost much in terms of any real accumulated portfolio balance and the middle aged investor would have had more but may not have had accumulated enough to declare a disaster.

Both groups were hurt but not as badly as their older cohorts, the Early Boomers. Or at least they thought.

This, they say, was why, the people who lost the largest portion of their retirement were given the greatest amount of airtime and print in the news. They may have lost a sizable chunk of their retirement accounts but there was something different about those assets in the portfolio.

The authors realized, this group was so much farther ahead in terms of real portfolio gains because of that run-up that they were actually better off even if they had less time to recover fully the value of those accounts. they were so far ahead that to reach parity with the oldest investor, the Late Boomers would have to attain a 13.2% gain in their portfolio – year over year. The Gen Xers would need only gain 11%.

The authors don’t suggest it is impossible. They do think it is unlikely.

So here we have the Early Boomers with the run-up in their 401(k) portfolios that may not ever repeat itself. And because they were invested in a more balanced way when the crisis hit, may have come close to where their account balances were at the end of 2007. And here is where pensions diverge.

All of the people enrolled in a pension are affected by the downturn.  Many of the older workers felt the benefits of those run-up years while younger workers did not.  The contributions were in line with what the overall performance of the plan was at the time and now are faced with the realities of the market place.  Early retirement benefits, pensions increases or other adjustments to the plan have changed the stability of the pension for the youngest worker.  It has also upset the plans that may have been made by the Late Boomer as well.

We also know that downturns of late are increasing in frequency [seems like every five years or so] and they seem to be getting more severe. We do know that recoveries are quicker than they were in the past. Does this mean that there is a chance for the Late Boomers or Gen Xers to get to where their older cohorts are?

Yes and no. The older workers among us will still be able to retire and because of those generous years, will do so with a reasonable amount of replacement income.  But the rest of us face a retirement dilemma.

The battle you will wage will be counterintuitive to what you really want to do. You must learn to invest outside of your pension.  This is where I intend to help.  Some of you will have access to a pension employee's 401(k), something your employer may offer with or without the matching contribution.  You may have to use an IRA instead.

You will find yourself doing what many investors are currently doing even if you consider yourself experienced.  We will focus on how to use these tools to increase your future financial stability.  We will navigate you through the choppy waters that investing has become and help you struggle with the behaviors that make that process more difficult than it has to be. We will look at not only where and how but why you should invest, how to grapple with debt and increase your chances for a more secure retirement.

You will need to do more than simply rely on your pension.  Even though your pension may be there for you in the future and it still provides an economic incredible leg-up as compared to your non-pension cohorts, the real chances of retirement in the way you want it to be is in your hands.
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About Paul Petillo

Paul PetilloPaul Petillo has been helping workers navigate the financial system for over twelve years, first with the BlueCollarDollar.com and currently with Target2025.com.  Focused on a common sense approach to investing, retirement and money, Petillo has also authored four books on these subjects (Building Wealth in a Paycheck-to-Paycheck World - McGraw-Hill 2004, Investing for the Utterly Confused - McGraw-Hill 2006, Retirement Planning for the Utterly Confused - McGraw-Hill 2007, Mutual Funds for the Utterly Confused - McGraw-Hill 2008) and is preparing to publish his fifth book ReBuilding Wealth in a Paycheck-to-Paycheck World in June.  He is also finishing his sixth book based on the site Target2025.com.

Petillo is also a 32 year union member with UFCW Local 555.

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